Recent news about the United States reducing or waiving sanctions on Russia, at a time of record-high oil prices, and rumors of a return to fighting with Iran illustrate how Moscow and Tehran are connected in terms of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gulf.
This matters because sanctions relief for Russia does not happen in isolation, as if it occurs in a vacuum.
Iran has backed Russia, and Russia has backed Iran. Therefore, if Russia is empowered on one front to weaken Iran on another, it’s worth seeing it as part of the same global conflict.
It’s also important to understand how we got here.
Russia and Iran have a relationship and ties that go back many decades, and Russia has been involved in supporting the Iranian regime during that time. For instance, Russia was involved with a nuclear power plant in Iran.
During Barack Obama’s administration, it’s worth noting a similar interplay between Russia and Iran.
The US reduced pressure on Russia and was perceived as reducing support for European allies regarding a missile shield, which apparently led to Russia getting on board with support for the Iran deal.
At the time, the Obama administration prioritized the Iran deal.
One theory was that the US could reset relations and get along with Moscow, perhaps by reducing the perception of support for European allies, and that appeasement would somehow lead Russia to pressure Iran on its nuclear program.
We must understand that Russia is very adept at playing this card and this game. It understands that the US has priorities, but it doesn’t always seem able to keep focus on multiple priorities at once.
Russia likes to play a game where Moscow waits until the US is tied up with another conflict, such as with Iran now, and then moves in to try to get things for itself.
Russia-Iran ties predate war on Ukraine
The Russia-Iran connection also predates the war in Ukraine. Iran supplied Russia with its Shahed-136 drones, and Russia used them from early in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine to terrorize the Ukrainian population.
These drones do not win wars by themselves, but they do spread terror.
Iran supplied Russia with hundreds or thousands of them, and Russia then began manufacturing them domestically, illustrating the close relationship between the two nations.
Tehran exported the same type of drones to the Houthis in Yemen, probably in 2020 or 2021. It was clear then that Iran was using the Houthis as a testbed to threaten Israel and other countries.
Iran and Russia tend to see most of these conflicts as interconnected. For instance, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 after watching the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Later, when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Russia took advantage of that chaos: Moscow was pleased to see Israel, a close US ally, tied up in a massive war, shifting the international spotlight to the Middle East and away from Ukraine.
Russia continues benefiting from Middle East strategy
Russia continues to benefit from what happens in the Middle East: whenever America is tied up in conflicts there, Moscow benefits, and it continues to pursue this strategy.
Russia is keenly aware of some skepticism within US President Donald Trump’s administration regarding Ukraine. Therefore, it has always been happy to use the Ukraine conflict to its advantage and has tried to exploit tensions between Washington and Kyiv.
After the US war began against Iran in February, Russia has clearly seen this as an opportunity to gain sanctions relief or energy sales, and it is part of the overall Russian grand global strategy.
Moscow views itself as confronting the American-led world order. It wants to revive Russian influence and power, work with Iran and China, and believes the 2026 conflict in Iran is another way the world order will accelerate toward becoming a more multipolar world.
As such, when Moscow looks at possible sanctions relief, it sees how this nexus between Russia and Iran can continue to bedevil the Americans, and it will continue to exploit it in order to achieve its goals and interests.
The question then for the US is whether it thinks it can achieve its goals and interests regarding Ukraine and a peace deal, or Iran and a deal with Iran.
As long as Iran and Russia are able to play US policy off against itself, it will be difficult for the United States to achieve its goals.