Tehran and Washington are more likely to reach an agreement to end the conflict now than two months ago, Sima Shine, a senior researcher and former director of the Iran and Shiite Axis research program at the Institute for National Security Studies, told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
However, she stressed, negotiations could still fall through if the US refused to bend on giving Iran the right to uranium enrichment or if personal egos get in the way.
Shine, who also headed the Mossad’s Research and Evaluation Division until 2007, assessed that, because of the US midterm election results and the coming winter season, both US President Donald Trump and Iran’s negotiation team were pressed to avoid a return to military clashes.
Trump told CBS’s 60 Minutes on Sunday that both opposition to Israel and the Iran war are what handed the Democratic Party major wins during the midterms.
“I think we can understand [the need to avoid a return to direct warfare] from Trump’s declarations and behavior, as well as the fact that he acknowledged that the defeat in the Senate and Congress was because of the Iran war,” Shine said.
Fuel shortage puts added pressure on Iran's struggling economy
“All these things together make it quite understandable that he would prefer to close this issue and spend the next two years focusing on other matters,” she continued.
“As for the Iranians, they also don’t want to remain in the current situation. We heard Iranian President [Masoud] Pezeshkian say that the supreme leader’s instructions were not to allow the current state of ‘no war, no peace’ to continue,” Shine said.
On the Iranian side, Shine noted that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been largely successful and that, as winter approaches, their fuel shortage could become a major issue for the already struggling economy.
Iranian lawmakers this past week have already begun advising households to cut energy use in anticipation of the drop in temperature in the coming weeks.
Trump's actions without agreement remain uncertain
Though both Washington and Tehran have their own reasons to want to end the war, Shine said, there were still major obstacles that remained, and Iran was unlikely to accept any agreement that did not allow it to continue pursuing uranium enrichment, an issue Trump has stated he is set against.
“You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon. I think, historically, this will be a very good decision. Is it a good decision for today and tomorrow? Maybe not,” Trump said on Sunday.
“But you know, I have to go with what’s right for our country. If they had a nuclear weapon during my term, I would be excoriated far worse than what’s happened,” he said.
Despite the potential gap, Shine said she believed, based on leaked information, there is a good chance the two sides will reach an agreement.
“It will not be a good agreement, nor the best agreement that could be achieved,” she continued, suggesting that a better accord could have been made two years ago.
“I think the Iranians understood from the beginning, when they started negotiating with Trump, that he might decide to use the military option. It wasn’t just talk, and I think they were much more willing to compromise on different issues, believing they could overcome the differences and reach some kind of agreement,” she said.
“They had been talking about postponing enrichment for five to seven years or something along those lines, although I don’t think they are at that point today,” Shine estimated. “What matters is where we are today, not where we were in the past.”
“Today, it looks to me like there is room for an agreement, unless someone on either side decides that the demands are impossible to accept.”
Shine theorized that pressure from Gulf states had also pushed Trump to be more flexible.
Asked whether, given the lack of support for the Iran war in the US, an agreement might embolden Iran and make it a greater threat, Shine appeared confident that its uncertainty would moderate it.
Explaining that Israel had surprised Iran with its capabilities during the wars, and, given the transitional period Israel is currently in after the elections, she said that Iran would be unlikely to risk making a move that could embolden caretaker Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp.
Uncertainty also surrounds what Trump will do next if an agreement is not made, especially if Pickaxe Mountain becomes a target, Shine added.
According to The Sunday Times, citing an Iranian Health Ministry official, Iodine tablets are already being distributed to communities near nuclear facilities as a precaution against possible radiation exposure should the attacks go ahead.
“The situation is very fragile. There is no trust at all between the Iranians and the Americans. But I think that, at the end of the day, it is up to the Trump administration, and Trump himself, to decide what direction things will take,” Shine said. “If he decides to reach an agreement, I think he will make sure that Israel does not attack.”