Former Palestinian Authority minister Sufian Abu Zaida, who last month said he had conveyed a warning message from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to Israel just weeks before the October 7 massacre, said he did not make that revelation to influence the Israeli election on October 27.
“I did not choose the timing of the reporting in the Israeli media about that message from Sinwar,” he told The Jerusalem Post, referring to the Haaretz expose. “I’m a mediator; I’m not responsible for when and how such information is released.”
According to a Haaretz investigative report published last month, a warning that “Hamas was planning a major event” was delivered to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ).
The Prime Minister’s Office denied the claim.
“I’m not interfering in the elections in Israel and didn’t have any intention to do so,” said Abu Zaida, the mediator referred to as “Coal Eyes.”
While the reported conversation between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and MBZ has generated intense buzz and heightened political debate in Israel, Abu Zaida said he was responsible only for relaying to the Israelis the message he had received from Sinwar: “Before the end of September, I will have cards on the table that would cause an earthquake concerning the negotiations, and they [the Israelis] should prepare themselves to empty the prisons.”
Asked what those cards were that Sinwar was speaking about in his threat, he said, “I don’t know.”
October 7 was 'reckless gamble,' outcome was 'devastating' for Palestinians
Abu Zaida, a former Fatah official originally from the Jabalya refugee camp in northern Gaza, served as a mediator between Hamas and Israel through back channels for about a year prior to the October 7 massacre, trying to reach a deal for the exchange of two Israeli soldiers and two civilians held by Hamas in Gaza in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails and steps to ease humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
After receiving the mid-September 2023 message from Sinwar, he said he had turned to his close associate, Mohammad Dahlan, who heads the Democratic Reform faction.
“I consulted him before passing it on to the Israelis,” he said. “Dahlan asked me: ‘Are you sure that Sinwar wants you to deliver it to Israel?’ I told him, ‘Yes.’”
Abu Zaida then informed Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) officials about Sinwar’s message.
Hamas’s massacre was “a reckless gamble based on mistaken calculations and assessments,” he said. “The outcome was therefore devastating for the Palestinian people.”
“Looking back, none of the objectives Hamas had put forward as reasons for the attack – especially Jerusalem, the prisoners, the blockade on Gaza, and the settlements in the West Bank – were achieved,” he added. “In fact, the opposite occurred.”
Abbas concerned about losing elections, says Abu Zaida
Abu Zaida said he was not convinced that the elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, announced by PA President Mahmoud Abbas for November 28, would be held as planned.
Abu Zaida, who is affiliated with the faction led by Dahlan, a political rival of Abbas, said he believes Abbas is concerned about losing the elections.
“When Abbas sees the ongoing political talks, consultations, and maneuvers among opposition Palestinian factions, he realizes that there is a political risk for him,” he said.
“He [Abbas] understands that Fatah, under his leadership, could lose power,” he added. “So, he would try to first explore how things are developing, specifically to what extent the opposition factions are influential and strong, before making any decisions about moving forward with the elections.”
Abu Zaida described Dahlan as a Palestinian leader with charisma and influence in many circles. When asked about his prospects of replacing Abbas and becoming president, he said: “It is for Dahlan to decide whether to run for the presidency, and in any case, the Palestinian people should make that decision at the ballot box. This is also Dahlan’s position.”
Dahlan, once a senior Fatah official and security chief, was expelled by Abbas from the movement’s central committee and has lived in exile, mostly in the UAE, since 2011. He broke with the official Fatah movement and established his own faction, known as the “Democratic Reformist Current.”
In recent months, discussions have taken place among Palestinian factions opposed to Abbas, including Dahlan’s camp, Hamas, and possibly other factions, aimed at uniting under a joint national list ahead of the Palestinian Legislative Council elections.
According to people familiar with the matter, while no final decision has been made to form such an opposition bloc, efforts are likely to continue, posing a political challenge to Abbas’s leadership.