The Kingdom of Jordan has often criticized Israel’s actions at the UN and in other international diplomatic forums. It has an established track record of advocating for a two-state solution and supporting the Palestinians.
It also has a long record of harsh criticism of Israel, especially in relation to issues involving Jerusalem, because Jordan portrays itself as protecting the status quo in terms of holy sites in the city.
Amman’s criticism at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, however, was categorically different from the past. It was not about the West Bank, Gaza, or Jerusalem. It was about regional strategy.
“This Israeli government’s appetite is now a regional threat,” Jordan’s King Abdullah II said. “And today, Syria is the warning.”
He was addressing Israel’s incursion into Syria on December 8, 2024, when the Assad regime fell. Israel responded with continued bombing of Syria and shelling of the border area over the past two years.
Jordan is concerned about southern Syria because of a number of issues. During the Syrian civil war, Amman backed the Syrian rebels.
In those days, Israel and Amman both had good ties with Syrian rebel groups in southern Syria. In fact, when the rebels collapsed in 2018 in southern Syria, Israel helped evacuate the White Helmets to Jordan.
This is now a different era in terms of regional dynamics. Jordan embraced the new government in Damascus. Israeli officials threatened the new government and have said war was coming with Syria.
Israel is 'testing how far it can go' in Syria, Jordan claims
Israel has bombed Damascus and most recently bombed a military base in northern Syria, warning Turkey not to play a role in Syria. There is open talk in Jerusalem of a future conflict with Turkey over Syria.
For Jordan, this is problematic. It wants peace and security in southern Syria. During the Assad regime’s years, Jordan took in almost a million Syrian refugees. It also had to deal with threats such as Iranian-backed drug smuggling.
For Jordan, the new government in Damascus has presented an opportunity for stability. Israel, on the other hand, wants southern Syria demilitarized, and it has backed the Druze in Sweida.
The Druze have talked about creating their own state in southern Syria and entering an alliance with Israel. Jordan views this outcome with concern. It believes drug smuggling continues to flow from Sweida as a result of networks from the Assad era.
It is important to engage with Jordan’s keen knowledge of southern Syria. Many people in northern Jordan have historic ties to communities in southern Syria and vice versa.
At the same time, Jordan wants to prevent any spillover from Syria into Jordan. For instance, it wants to avoid any extremist groups popping up amid the current security vacuum.
The king of Jordan articulated this goal at the UN, lambasting Israel’s role in Syria.
“The international community is choosing not to see repeated incursions, creeping territorial expansion, new facts and posts on the ground, including around vital water resources,” he said. “Step by calculated step, Israel is testing how far it can go.”
Israel is crossing borders and pushing the “legal limits” of expansion, Abdullah II said.
What the Jordanian king is articulating is a view held increasingly by some players in the region. Historically, Israel was isolated in the Middle East, from its founding in 1948 to the era of the peace agreement with Egypt and Jordan.
The peace agreements and the 1990s provided hope for the two states. During that early period, there was a sense that the Middle East might move from conflict to peace. This easy progression did not happen.
Nevertheless, countries in the Middle East did not view Israel as a major threat, because there were other balancing factors. The US invasion of Iraq and the Arab Spring changed these calculations.
With the weakening of many states and the civil conflicts in Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Iraq, along with the rise of ISIS, most of the Middle East fell into chaos. Iran stepped into this vacuum.
From 2015 to 2020, many of the Arab states were concerned about groups such as ISIS, as well as Iran’s expansion into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
This began to change after the Abraham Accords, however, and there was a brief period in which normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia appeared to be on the table. Some of these countries saw Israel as a potential partner and ally.
The past three years have changed this perception, however, and after the October 7 massacre, the region was plunged into conflict. Many countries tried to weather the storm.
The fall of the Assad regime and a new election in Iraq has provided hope and promise for Iraq and Syria.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey have all come to believe that Israel is now stepping into the vacuum left by Iran’s decline. In a classic realist interpretation of the balance of power in the region, they now see Israel as a potential threat.
Jordan fears power vacuum in Syria spurring deeper Middle East conflict
On the one hand, Israel can ignore the critiques from Turkey because Ankara’s AKP government has been one of the most hostile to Israel in the region. This has led Jerusalem to begin to see Turkey as “the next Iran.”
Turkey is a member of NATO, however, and the idea of fighting a NATO member likely only appeals to some messianic sects in Jerusalem. What the other voices believe is that Syria and other states need to remain weak.
Jordan fears a power vacuum in southern Syria, which explains why Amman is articulating its concerns at the UN. It believes instability in the West Bank or Syria is a direct threat to it.
This isn’t the first time Jordan has adopted this perspective. The Jordanian civil conflict in the 1970s was caused by Palestinian terrorist groups.
Amman sought to separate itself from its previous links to the West Bank in the 1990s. Yet it feels its policies didn’t result in peace, but rather more conflict.
As a close ally of the West, Jordan is seeking to raise the alarm about its concerns to the international community. Like many countries in the region, it will be taking a “wait and see” approach in light of Israel’s upcoming election.
Jordan wants to articulate a calculated view of Israel that is increasingly taking root in the region.