Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will announce his vice presidential running-mate in the coming days. With polls indicating a tight race for the White House, several candidates have been touted to join Romney on the Republican ticket. This list includes US Senators Marco Rubio, Rob Portman and Kelly Ayotte; Governors Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie and Tim Pawlenty, and former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The VP selection process attracts high prominence due to several key changes in US politics in recent decades. Firstly, the vice-presidency has become the single best transitional office to the presidency. Secondly, the VP office has gained more power and resourcing. And thirdly, pressure has escalated on presidential candidates to select a running-mate that could effectively assume office upon the incumbent's unanticipated death or incapacity. The latter factor was a major feature of the 2008 presidential election when 71-year-old Republican nominee John McCain made the high-risk decision to select Sarah Palin as his running-mate. Palin's only office experience was less than two years as the governor of Alaska. Rather than boosting McCain’s campaign, Palin was ultimately viewed as far too inexperienced to be president. This was also true in 1988 when former president George H.W. Bush selected Dan Quayle – then a two-term US senator – as his VP candidate. In light of the Palin episode, Romney must make a choice that will ‘do no harm’ to his electoral prospects. The pressure on Romney to choose a harmless candidate has led the media to focus its attention on Ohio Senator Rob Portman. Given his extensive experience as director of the White House office for budget and management, US trade representative, and his current position: US senator of key swing state of Ohio, Portman is sure to be a 'safe' VP selection. Historically, the process of selecting VP nominees tended to focus on issues like reconciling important party stakeholders after brutal primary contests and the perceived advantage of choosing ‘balanced tickets’— in which the VP and presidential candidates are chosen based on region and party philosophy in order to maximize support across the nation. One potential balanced ticket candidate for Romney is Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio's life story – he was born in Florida to Cuban immigrants – would favorably contrast with perceptions of Romney’s wealth and privilege. Rubio is also a darling of the Tea Party, thus his selection could dispel conservative concerns about Romney’s more moderate Republicanism. The selection of Rubio, while potentially hazardous due to his relative inexperience – he entered the US Senate in 2011— would also increase Romney's chances of winning the key swing state of Florida. Romney’s wife, Anne, has also highlighted that a woman may be chosen as her husband's running-mate. In addition to Rice and first-term New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte, potential female candidates include two governors who, like Ayotte, are serving only their first term of office in their present post: South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley – an American-Indian whose parents emigrated from Amritsar – and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez – who could appeal to the rapidly growing US Hispanic population. However, partly due to changes in the presidential nomination system and the proliferation of mass media, these traditional considerations – while still of enduring consequence – are less relevant to the modern process. Former vice president Al Gore was selected in 1992 by then-presidential candidate and Arkansas governor Bill Clinton – a fellow centrist Democrat and southerner – not to balance the ticket, but to reinforce a key narrative about Clinton’s ‘New Democrat' candidacy. Despite these selection patterns, VP choices routinely confound the pundits. For instance, few – if any – anticipated the 2008 selections of Palin and current Vice President Joe Biden, nor in 2000 of Dick Cheney and Senator Joe Lieberman. The selections of Washington veterans Cheney and Biden were noteworthy inasmuch as they were chosen to fortify the political inexperience of then-presidential candidates George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Cheney, in particular, is widely considered the most powerful vice president in American history. Cheney’s influence derived from his experience and connections as a former White House chief of staff; congressman and defense secretary, and the changes he brought to the office of the vice presidency – for instance, he considerably increased his national security staff. However, his influence also reflected the increased status of the vice presidency in recent decades which, as well as being reflected in larger staff budgets, also includes greater proximity to the West Wing office in the White House; weekly one-on-one meetings with the president; and authority to attend all presidential meetings. The selections of Cheney and Biden were also interesting in another sense: both Bush and Obama made the assumption that, due to age and health, neither of their more experienced running mates represented a future political threat, and would thus be very loyal. From a historical perspective, these decisions were highly unusual. Since 1960, four former vice presidents – Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968; Walter Mondale in 1984; and Gore in 2000 – won their respective party’s presidential nomination but then lost the general election. Only two former vice-presidents have been elected president – Nixon in 1968 and George H.W. Bush in 1988. One reason why vice presidents have – in the post-war period – had success in securing their party’s presidential nomination relates to the Twenty Second Amendment in 1951. This constitutional amendment barred presidents from serving more than two terms in office. This amendment allowed VPs to organize a presidential campaign during the sitting president’s second term of office without charges of disloyalty. It is in context of short-term political calculation and historical precedent that Romney will make what could prove to be the defining decision of his campaign. Miscalculation could be costly – especially if the race remains tight. However, if the selection wins strong approval, Romney's candidacy will secure invaluable new momentum. The writer is an associate partner at ReputationInc. He was formerly the North America Editor at Oxford Analytica, and a UK government special adviser.
