No clear winner emerged in Israel’s election, according to exit polls published by Channels 11, 12, and 13 on Tuesday night, all of which showed both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition bloc seeking to replace him falling short of a 61-seat Knesset majority.
The opposition bloc, comprising Yashar, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats, was projected to win 50-53 seats, compared with some 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. Neither side appeared to have a clear path to forming a coalition, though the opposition bloc declared victory shortly after the exit polls were released.
The Joint List and Ra’am were projected to win a record-breaking combined 17-18 seats, potentially making Arab parties pivotal to coalition negotiations. However, opposition leaders have largely ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, barring the Democrats' Yair Golan.
Netanyahu’s Likud was projected to receive 24-25 seats and was set to remain the largest party in the next Knesset, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar was expected to win 21-23 seats, according to the exit polls.
Most recent polling ahead of the Tuesday vote had shown neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition bloc as managing to secure a 61-seat majority. Voter turnout reached its highest level since at least 1973, according to Central Elections Committee records, which have tracked turnout at set times throughout Election Day since then.
The final voter turnout number came out as 77.7% when polls closed at 10:00 p.m., according to the Central Elections Committee (CEC), up by 7.1% recorded in the 2022 election.
The small right-wing parties hovering near the electoral threshold, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic party, were both projected to fall short of the required 3.25% threshold, potentially further complicating efforts by Netanyahu’s bloc to secure a majority.
Could Israel be heading toward a unity gov't - or another election?
The prospect of a unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot has appeared unlikely, as Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation government. Other opposition leaders have also ruled out joining a coalition led by the prime minister.
Eisenkot has called for the leader of the largest party in the opposition bloc to become its candidate for prime minister, though no agreement on the arrangement has been announced within the bloc.
The exit polls also raised the possibility of a minority government that could win a Knesset confidence vote without holding an absolute majority of 61 seats. However, opposition within the bloc to relying on Arab parties could complicate such an arrangement.
Official results to be determined after ballots are counted
The exit polls have differed from final results in previous elections, and the official results will be determined after ballots are counted.
The political deadlock could ultimately lead to another election, although coalition negotiations may still produce an agreement between the parties.
In the opposition bloc, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is projected to be the third-largest party, receiving 12-14 seats according to exit polls.
Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu was projected to receive 7-9 seats, while Yair Golan’s Democrats stood at 9-10, exit polls showed.
Meanwhile, in the Netanyahu bloc, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party was projected to win 6-7 seats, while the Religious Zionist Party-Zehut, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, was projected to win 6 seats.
The major (haredi) ultra-Orthodox parties are set to receive a combined 12-13 seats, with Shas getting 6 seats and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) earning 6-7 seats, according to the exit polls.
Opposition leaders declare exit poll results a victory for bloc
Eisenkot and other opposition party leaders declared the initial exit poll results a victory for their bloc, stating that Netanyahu’s camp had been defeated.
“The initial exit poll results indicate a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and his October 7 government among the Zionist majority and the majority of Israeli citizens,” Eisenkot stated.
“If these are the final results, they represent a victory for Israel’s national-minded, Zionist majority,” he added.
“I will act immediately to implement the people’s decision, replace the Netanyahu government, and establish a Zionist government committed to military conscription as soon as possible,” Eisenkot said.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid also declared Netanyahu’s bloc defeated.
“Don’t let anyone confuse you: The Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. This is a total collapse, and the public has told them to go home,” he stated.
Democrats Party chairman Yair Golan said the results presented an opportunity to establish a new government.
“The public has spoken. It has fired the Netanyahu government. We have been given a historic opportunity to establish a genuine government of change in Israel, and we have no intention of giving it up,” Golan said.
“We are ready to work with all our partners, bridge the gaps, and take responsibility,” he added.
If Eisenkot were to become prime minister, he would oust Netanyahu, whose right-wing government was in power during the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks and went on to serve its full term. Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, having held the office for more than 19 years in total.
Following the October 7 massacre and the ensuing war, the opposition bloc has called for Netanyahu to be held accountable for the attacks, arguing that he should no longer serve as prime minister and calling for a state commission of inquiry to be established.