Right-wing Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a runoff of the presidential election later this month, after he exceeded expectations in Sunday's first-round vote with a slight lead over the incumbent.
The election, which centered around the cost of living, corruption and insecurity in Brazilians' daily lives, follows a string of wins across Latin America by right-wing parties aligned with US President Donald Trump.
Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected performance, at 47% of votes versus Lula's 45%, is expected to buoy his campaign and may bolster Brazil's currency and stock market, which have risen on the prospects of the business-friendly challenger. Private surveys in the run-up to the election had forecast Lula leading the first-round vote by around 3 percentage points.
"Brazil wants change and I am very happy with the results," Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia after nearly all tallies were reported, heralding "the end of the era of (Lula's) Workers' Party."
The senator, son of right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, now heads to an October 25 showdown with the leftist Lula.
Addressing a crowd at a hotel in Sao Paulo, Lula said he had been convinced he would win the election in the first round.
"Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign," he said, promising to show voters what he had accomplished as president.
Despite growing worries over Brazil's public finances and sluggish economic growth, the campaign offered meager policy debate, as both leading candidates skipped the major TV debates.
"The pollsters missed badly," said Robert Muggah, cofounder of think-tank Igarape Institute. "Expect the runoff polls, which show a dead heat, to understate Bolsonaro as well."
Early on Sunday, Bolsonaro told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was counting on "a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Lula."
Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to get Lula's Workers Party out of office.
"I don't think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next few minutes," she said, adding that she wished psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury were a more viable candidate.
Fernando Tempel, 49, a management consultant, told Reuters he was voting for Flavio despite initially planning to vote for Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state.
Officials warn of US refusing to recognize election results
On the other hand, Lula's allies have warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize election results if he wins, pointing to an aborted effort to send US officials to Brazil.
"What is at stake is the future of Brazil," Lula said after voting in Sao Bernardo do Campo, in Sao Paulo state.
Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.
"I'm a little worried about everything that's been happening recently, including internationally. I feel this election has had a lot of outside influence, more than in previous elections," said Cristiano, 34, a doctor in Brasilia who voted for Lula and preferred to withhold his surname.
"We are confident in our President Lula, who will fight for national sovereignty," said Pedro Palacio, 45, who was voting in Brasilia alongside his wife, Andreia, and their two sons and two dogs, all of whom wore outfits supporting the president.
As of Sunday afternoon, the election was proceeding normally, Brazil's electoral court chief Kassio Nunes Marques said in a press conference.
“Teams monitoring international risks have not identified any risks whatsoever," he said.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged US and Russian interference before the election. The US has rejected claims of interference in Brazil's affairs.
Despite falling inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to win over voters grappling with high living costs, heavy household debt and the threat of street crime and more pervasive gang activity.
Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to capitalize on cost-of-living concerns, while Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families.
Rising public debt, fiscal concerns, key issue in Brazil election
Rising spending and public debt above 82% of GDP have stoked fiscal concerns that Brazil's next president will need to address. The government lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next to just 2.0% and 2.3% respectively.
"I voted for Brazil to start growing again," said Marciano de Souza e Silva, a 52-year-old public servant in Brasilia and former Lula voter who moved right, voting for Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022 and Flavio on Sunday.
"The best social program is one that encourages people to start businesses, to actually produce real wealth," he said.
Overshadowing the policy debate, a scandal surrounding the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil's political class and renewed public anger over corruption.
Daniel Vorcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. The investigation has probed the banker's ties to figures from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Flavio Bolsonaro, who is being investigated for money laundering tied to the case by the federal police.
The candidate has denied any wrongdoing, although he confirmed raising millions of dollars from Vorcaro to make a movie about his father.
The banker's connections to Moraes, widely perceived as a Lula ally, plunged the court into crisis a month before the vote, creating fresh problems for the president. Moraes has said the case against him is politically motivated for his role in the conviction of the elder Bolsonaro.
On Sunday, voters will also elect all 513 lower house members and two-thirds of the Senate, where some lawmakers have pushed to impeach Moraes.
Congress has gained greater influence in Brazilian politics since the impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff, a Lula ally, in 2016, raising the stakes of those legislative races.